Improve Your Win Rate with Smarter Bid Decisions

Ashley (Kayes) Floro, CPP APMP • March 13, 2026

How Applying Rigor in Your Bid Decisions Will Improve Your Win Rate


Winning more proposals isn’t just about writing better—it starts much earlier with making smarter decisions about which opportunities to pursue. Yet many organizations struggle with the discipline required to say “no,” especially after time, energy, and resources have already been invested in an opportunity. When the pressure to maintain pipeline volume or recover sunk costs takes over, teams often find themselves chasing pursuits with little realistic chance of success. One of the most effective ways to improve win rates, protect team capacity, and focus resources where they matter most is by applying greater rigor to the bid decision process. In today's article, we take a deeper look at one of the most important tactics for improving proposal outcomes: making smart, data-informed bid decisions.


Make Smart Bid Decisions


One key reason win rates may be low is that the company is making poor bid decisions. This is a hard one for many companies because it is so difficult to ignore the sunk costs that have gone into a pursuit; however, smart organizations will not discount the opportunity costs of developing and submitting a proposal with a low probability of win. With proposals, it’s critical to reassess the bid decision once the RFP is released and during key proposal and/or gate reviews. Critical questions to ask when making these important bid decisions include:


  • Does the opportunity fit your business plan?
  • Do you have an excellent customer relationship?
  • Do you understand the customer’s goals, issues, and requirements?
  • Do you have/can you get the people to support the requirement?
  • Do you have the required experience/past performance? Can you team if not?
  • Do you have the required corporate commitment and resources?
  • Do you have a committed proposal team? Can you augment your staff with consultants if not?


With a live RFP, if the answer to any of the above is NO, you should think long and hard about pursuing the opportunity at hand.


Decision Matrices and Tools


For some companies, it may be useful to create decision matrices to help inform the bid decision. The decision matrix shown below is fairly simple, taking six weighted areas and generating a score to better quantify the health of the potential opportunity. This particular matrix rates key areas, including customer relationship, customer requirements, capture plan and proposal team, timing, past performance, and competition to generate its score. Such matrices can range from fairly simple, like this one, to fairly complex. But the objective is the same—to help better inform the bid decision. When using a tool like this, companies will typically set thresholds that indicate almost certain or definite bids and definite no bids. For example, this matrix has a maximum score of 50, so the company might set the definite bid level at 45 and the definite no bid level at 30.


Table 1. Sample Bid Decision Matrix



Other Tools Available


The idea of math intimidates many proposal professionals, so there are also some less-manual tools available out there to help teams to better inform the bid decision process. For example, this article includes a link to a free Excel solution. I find the Excel table versions to be particularly useful because they can be dropped into gate review decks to help support the bid decision process during gate reviews—and the numbers can be adjusted easily as the capture plan and solution matures. If you’re looking for a user-friendly software solution, you can look at available tools such as BidScore. This AI-driven tool helps you make smarter bid decisions by providing you with a win probability after you answer a series of bid decision questions tailored to your organization.



Final Thoughts


In this world of bids and proposals, we all certainly want to win more. However, there are so many factors that impact a company’s probability of win, and a number of things throughout the opportunity lifecycle can impact a company’s chances of winning (both positively and negatively). However, one key thing that you can do to positively impact your chances of winning is to pass on the opportunities with a low win probability. In addition to lowering your overall win and capture rates, consistently pursuing opportunities with low win probabilities is an ineffective use of resources, which not only can cost your company several thousand dollars a year (or more!), it can burn out your staff, lower morale, and result in increased capture and proposal staff turnover.


Shows requests for information (RFIs) becoming more important
By Ashley (Kayes) Floro, CPP APMP May 5, 2026
In government contracting, the pre-solicitation phase is where requirements are shaped, vendor relationships get established, and acquisition strategies get set. Experienced teams know this, which is why they invest heavily in customer engagement, competitive intelligence, and capture planning long before a Request for Proposal (RFP) is released. But one pre-solicitation activity has historically been undervalued: the Request for Information (RFI). That's changing fast, and contractors who haven't noticed are already behind. RFIs: No Longer Just Market Research The traditional view of RFIs is simple: agencies issue them to gather information about industry capabilities before drafting a solicitation. That definition no longer captures what's happening in the current procurement landscape. Today, agencies use RFIs to define and refine requirements, test the feasibility of solutions, identify capable vendors early, and reduce the risk of poorly structured procurements. RFIs aren't just gathering information anymore, they're shaping the acquisition itself. Why Agencies Are Leaning into RFIs Several forces are pushing agencies toward deeper pre-solicitation engagement with industry, with a noticeable emphasis on RFIs. Increasing complexity. Emerging technologies and evolving mission needs mean agencies often don't know what the right solution looks like. The Government needs industry input to understand what's possible. Budget pressure. With tighter budgets and greater oversight, agencies must justify acquisition strategies earlier. RFIs let the Government validate assumptions before committing funds. Risk reduction. Poorly defined requirements lead to protests, delays, and costly rework. Getting it right before the RFP saves the Government time, money, and credibility. The result: more consequential work is happening before the RFP is ever released, and RFIs are holding more weight. The Strategic Opportunity Contractors Are Missing For contractors, this shift changes when and how opportunities are won. Responding to an RFI is no longer a courtesy or a branding exercise. It's a chance to shape how the problem is framed, introduce alternative approaches, position your capabilities as the benchmark, and influence evaluation criteria before they're finalized. Organizations that engage early often help define the playing field. By the time the RFP drops, those who sat out may find themselves reacting to requirements that already favor someone else. The Bar Is Rising RFIs are also becoming more structured. Agencies increasingly use standardized response templates, form-based submissions, and structured data collection—making it easier to compare vendors side by side. This raises the stakes for how you respond. Vague answers and marketing language don't land in structured formats. Clear, specific, well-supported responses stand out and are far more likely to influence the outcome. What To Do About It Organizations serious about win rates need to rethink how they treat RFIs: not as optional, but as strategic. This means being selective but intentional about which RFIs to pursue, aligning RFI responses with your broader capture strategy, and focusing on insight rather than just information. The goal isn't simply to answer the questions being asked: it's to shape the questions that will appear in the RFP. Final Thoughts RFIs are not new, but their role in government contracting is changing in meaningful ways. RFIs have become a critical touchpoint where agencies and industry collaborate to define problems, explore solutions, and reduce acquisition risk. For contractors, they represent one of the earliest, and most valuable, opportunities to influence an outcome. The organizations that recognize this, and act on it, are the ones best positioned to win.
By Ashley (Kayes) Floro, CPP APMP March 30, 2026
When was the last time your team truly examined why you won—or lost—a proposal? Every submission your team makes, win or lose, contains a roadmap for doing better next time. Yet many organizations treat each proposal as a standalone event, moving quickly from one bid to the next without pausing to reflect on what worked, what didn't, and why. This is a costly mistake. A structured lessons learned program, built into every stage of the business development lifecycle, is one of the most powerful tools a company can use to sharpen its competitive edge. Conducting Lessons Learned Conducting lessons learned after each proposal submission is a critical part of the business development lifecycle. It helps companies understand where they are excelling and where they need to improve. To ensure the experience is fresh in everyone's mind, each member of the proposal team should document their impressions — both positive and negative — within the first week after submission. Sample questions to consider include: Was the proposal development schedule reasonable and realistic? Why or why not? Were there any bottlenecks or major issues? If so, what were they, and how could they be mitigated in the future? Did the team work well together? If not, how could team dynamics have been improved? How effective was communication among the team? What went well? What could have been improved? Did any unexpected problems occur during proposal development? If so, how could they be mitigated going forward? Did the team stay within its B&P budget? If not, what could have been done differently? What worked best during the capture and proposal effort? What areas require improvement? A practical way to gather and analyze this feedback is to send a survey to each team member using an automated tool, which makes it easier to collate and compare responses. After Action Report Once the results are in, the Proposal Manager should review the feedback and prepare an After Action Report that details lessons learned and recommended next steps. This report should be shared with the full proposal team to ensure that insights are carried forward into future efforts. Lessons Learned Session Additionally, after contract award is announced, the team should conduct a formal Lessons Learned Session to document and discuss observations, findings, and conclusions — win or lose. By understanding where the team encountered roadblocks, and where the customer found gaps in the response, the team can address those issues and strengthen both the process and the final product on future efforts. Equally important: identify what the team is doing well and make sure those practices are preserved and repeated. Analyzing Trends and Updating Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) Conducting lessons learned after each proposal is valuable, but the benefit compounds when you step back and look at the bigger picture. On an annual basis, review your After Action Reports and lessons learned debriefs as a body of work, and analyze them for recurring themes and patterns. As the year wraps up, whether you follow a corporate fiscal year or the calendar year, ask yourself: What challenges keep surfacing? Where does the team consistently perform well? Sharing these trends with your team creates a culture of transparency and accountability, and helps focus improvement efforts where they matter most. More importantly, translate those findings into action by updating your business development and proposal SOPs. If internal feedback shows the team is consistently scrambling during production, adjust your SOPs to launch the production process earlier. If customer debriefs repeatedly cite a lack of customer understanding, take a hard look at your capture process and strengthen your call plan execution. Continuously refining your processes in response to real data is one of the clearest paths to improved performance—and more wins. Final Thoughts Every organization in this industry wants to win more, and win rates are often cited as the headline measure of a business development organization's health. While they are a useful starting point, win rates alone don't tell the whole story. Too many variables influence any single outcome. What matters more is building the discipline to learn from every effort, regardless of the result. A consistent lessons learned program, paired with annual trend analysis and a willingness to update your processes, creates a feedback loop that makes your team sharper over time. The companies that win consistently aren't just the ones with the best writers or the biggest budgets, they're the ones that treat every proposal, win or lose, as an opportunity to get better.
By Ashley (Kayes) Floro, CPP APMP March 25, 2026
Tight page limitations are continuing to be a challenge as contracting officers streamline their acquisition processes. When faced with tight page restrictions, we often find ourselves struggling with trimming five pages of material into two pages of allocated space. However, sometimes the content we are working with is so long because it is simply overly wordy. In this article, I present six tricks for eliminating waste. 1. Use Active Voice With active voice, the subject of the sentence comes first and performs the action in the sentence. Active voice is more straightforward and concise than passive voice. It typically results in shorter, sharper sentences. So not only does it take up less real estate, it flows better and is easier to understand. Passive: It was decided by the Program Manager to streamline the program. Active, Strong Verb: The Program Manager streamlined the program. 2. Eliminate Redundancies Remove redundancies that take up extra space and don’t add value. I present some examples below.